Every organization faces the problem of an uncertain future, perhaps an extremely uncertain future. Extreme events (“X-events”) dramatically impact a business, sometimes sooner, sometimes later. X-Event Dynamics aims to help the managers of such organizations more deeply understand the X-events that threaten them. Moreover, X-Event Dynamics provides tools for anticipating when these X-events are likely to occur, and most importantly, to offer methodology for managing their organization today in order to not only survive, but possibly even benefit, from X-Events.

By extreme events (“X-events”), we mean those events that are rare, surprising and have high impact (usually negative). These include global financial panics, major disruption to existing business ecosystems, a worldwide pandemic, a nuclear exchange, cost of money in Europe or the collapse of the European Union. The mission of XED is to help our clients understand, anticipate and manage the set of extreme events they are currently grappling with. As an example, if you are a re-insurer concerned with earthquakes in California, XED can offer a simulation of your industry helping you manage your firm today so as to not only survive such an X-event, but actually benefit from it.


Who Are We?

X-Event Dynamics, Inc. (XED) is a firm focusing on the development and application of tools from modern system theory, computer science and social science to analyze human-caused extreme events (“X-events”).  The tools give rise to both the ability to anticipate X-events (the X-Events Index), as well as to study the impact of any particular type of X-event on the activities of a firm or other organization, such as a mission-oriented government agency (the X-World Simulator and the X-Events Network Analyzer). Taken together, these tools provide insight into when and where X-events are imminent, as well as how such an event would affect the operations of a given organization.

Why Do We Exist?

XED was formed in 2017 by a consortium of system theorists and computer scientists having backgrounds in system modeling and computer simulation. XED also has close working arrangements with other firms and organizations who supply expert knowledge and/or data. These partners are currently in the financial services and geopolitical analysis sectors, as well as in areas specializing in data management of the type needed to implement the XED tools.

Who Can We Assist?

The target clientele of XED is any corporate, governmental or even individual entity concerned with the issue of how to not only survive an X-event, but also what actions they should be taking today to be not only a survivor of such an extreme event but a potential beneficiary of an extreme change in their operating environment.

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Publications

X-Events The Collapse of Everything

John Casti, X-Events: The Collapse of Everything, (HarperCollins, New York, 2012)

This is a book about outlier events, those surprises that are complementary to everything that takes place in what we will call the “normal” region.

Confronting Complexity

John Casti, Roger Jones, and Michael Pennock, Confronting Complexity: X-Events, Resilience, and Human Progress, (TheX-Press, Vienna, 2016)

We imagine the reader to be a person who wants to intelligently manage his or her actions and behaviors in the midst of an X-event—in short, to manage an organization in chaos.

Mood Matters

John Casti, Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers, (Copernicus, New York, 2010)

In short, events don’t matter, at least insofar as what causes a group to feel one way and not another about its prospects for the future.

“I am an assiduous reader of John Casti’s books. He is a real scientific intellectual.” —Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Times
“Casti provides thought-provoking speculation on the future of civilization.” —Kirkus Reviews
Book:X-Events, Kirkus Reviews
“One of America’s greatest pioneers of simulation, Casti has spent his career trying to simulate the real world in the virtual one – from games theory to traffic simulation and even insect infestations.” —London Times
Book:X-Events, London Times
“Casti is at his best in presenting difficult philosophical ideas enthusiastically and lucidly, and in presenting everyday examples to illustrate them… Entertaining and absorbing.” —New York Times Book Review
Book:X-Events, New York Times Book Review