Every organization faces the problem of an uncertain future, perhaps an extremely uncertain future. Extreme events (“X-events”) dramatically impact a business, sometimes sooner, sometimes later. X-Event Dynamics aims to help the managers of such organizations more deeply understand the X-events that threaten them. Moreover, X-Event Dynamics provides tools for anticipating when these X-events are likely to occur, and most importantly, to offer methodology for managing their organization today in order to not only survive, but possibly even benefit, from X-Events.
By extreme events (“X-events”), we mean those events that are rare, surprising and have high impact (usually negative). These include global financial panics, major disruption to existing business ecosystems, a worldwide pandemic, a nuclear exchange, cost of money in Europe or the collapse of the European Union. The mission of XED is to help our clients understand, anticipate and manage the set of extreme events they are currently grappling with. As an example, if you are a re-insurer concerned with earthquakes in California, XED can offer a simulation of your industry helping you manage your firm today so as to not only survive such an X-event, but actually benefit from it.
X-Events The Collapse of Everything
John Casti, X-Events: The Collapse of Everything, (HarperCollins, New York, 2012)
This is a book about outlier events, those surprises that are complementary to everything that takes place in what we will call the “normal” region.
John Casti, Roger Jones, and Michael Pennock, Confronting Complexity: X-Events, Resilience, and Human Progress, (TheX-Press, Vienna, 2016)
We imagine the reader to be a person who wants to intelligently manage his or her actions and behaviors in the midst of an X-event—in short, to manage an organization in chaos.
John Casti, Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers, (Copernicus, New York, 2010)
In short, events don’t matter, at least insofar as what causes a group to feel one way and not another about its prospects for the future.
“I am an assiduous reader of John Casti’s books. He is a real scientific intellectual.” —Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan
“Casti provides thought-provoking speculation on the future of civilization.” —Kirkus Reviews
“One of America’s greatest pioneers of simulation, Casti has spent his career trying to simulate the real world in the virtual one – from games theory to traffic simulation and even insect infestations.” —London Times
“Casti is at his best in presenting difficult philosophical ideas enthusiastically and lucidly, and in presenting everyday examples to illustrate them… Entertaining and absorbing.” —New York Times Book Review