The X-Event Dynamics Tools

The X-World Simulator addresses the question of understanding how a given X-event will impact the activities of an organization, such as a company within an industry or a government organization within a state structure. The Simulator does this  by in effect creating the world of the organization inside the computer. So, in effect, that “would-be world” becomes a laboratory for doing controlled, repeatable experiments that cannot be performed in the real world.

The management decisions interact in the virtual world with their competitor’s actions and the actions of the environment. At a particular point in time, an X-Event under consideration is then dropped into the virtual world and the simulator works out how that event impacts all the players. So, in effect, the simulator is essentially a computer game, with the players being the target organization and those other organizations in its operating environment.

So we see that the X-World Simulator allows the players to experiment with different operating strategies, in order to determine those actions that can be taken today to ensure the target firm not only survives the X-event, but conceivably even benefits from it.

This tool regards a given organization (company, agency, state, or otherwise) as a node connected to other such nodes in a network. Information, products, money and/or other goods flow through the nodes of the network. The tool allows expert-driven scenarios as well as machine-generated X-events to reveal potential risks and benefits for each node and the network overall.  The decisions of the management of each node impact what flows in and out from that node and how successful the node becomes as a member of the network. In addition, the environment outside the network also dynamically impacts the flow of goods through the network. X-events can hit nodes and/or links of the network at some random or predetermined point, and the effect percolating through the network over the course of time is simulated.

As with the X-World Simulator, this network view of the overall system offers valuable information to the participants managing each node as to how that X-event can affect their node and for how long.

Every event, X- or otherwise, is a combination of two factors: a context that sets the economic, political, social and other aspects of the environment within which the event occurs, and a random trigger that picks the event that actually occurs from the set of all possible events consistent with the context. Here we assume that the random trigger is, in fact, totally random in the sense that we have no ability to identify it prior to its occurrence. As a result, it is simply not possible to “predict” the specifics of an X-event in the sense that we can predict planetary positions or other such phenomena in nature. So The X-events Index focuses on forecasting the change of context, thus allowing us to at least anticipate an X-event, if not actually predict it.

XED has identified the two main drivers of a change of context are the social mood of the populace in the domain (geographic, cyberspace or otherwise) of the event, and the complexity levels of the systems in interaction giving rise to the X-event in question. Each of these drivers is dynamically changing, which in turn creates a continually shifting context. Without going into details here, suffice it to say that XED has developed tools for measuring both of these drivers. When the drivers reach critical levels determined by historical analyses, we can anticipate that an X-event is becoming ever more likely. This identification of when the context reaches critical levels is the basis of the X-Event Index.

The X-Event Bulletin: A monthly publication focusing on half a dozen global X-Events. Each month the Bulletin will review the status of these particular X-events, determining any new early-warning signals that would suggest the event is increasingly or decreasingly likely from the level of the previous month. These determinations will be generated by perceived changes in the social mood and complexity gaps relevant for each X-event. Also, the account of each X-event will contain editorial discussion of why the likelihood of that X-event has changed, along with any new implications that have arisen for the impact of the X-event should it occur.
X-Erius Gaming: X-Events Dynamics has a line of serious games for professionals. These games are simplified versions of the X-World Simulator designed to provide a serious introduction to management of X-Events. X-Erius Games are affordable and available to a wide audience.