This month, we are in Vienna with American systems scientist JOHN CASTI, an expert on X-events. In EPISODE 4, the last podcast in the series, we learn how to anticipate, prepare for, and manage future X-events.
RECAP: in EPISODE 1, we entered the world of X-events. In EPISODE 2, we encountered Wittgenstein. measured complexity gaps, and kept a look out for plateaux morphing into mountain peaks. In EPISODE 3, we learned about resilience and the four ‘As’, survival Hundertwasser-style, and creative destruction.
PRODUCTION | ChromeRadio in partnership with X-EventDynamics LLC | Recorded on location in Vienna, October 2017 | Producer – Catriona Oliphant | Post-production – Chris Sharp.
Financial crises, disruptions to global communications systems, political upheavals, pandemics… Extreme – or ‘X’ – events are difficult to predict, high impact, and cause significant damage. How can we prepare for them, and can we survive them? – Episode 3 – Chrome Radio Podcast December 2017
XED co-founder John Casti will be presenting as the opening speaker at The International Conference on Business, X-Events and Analytics, will be held from April 12-13, 2018 at the Austria Trend Parkhotel Schonbrunn in Vienna, Austria.
Learn more and register here
Chrome Radio travels to Vienna to interview John Casti, an American systems scientist and expert on X-events, to find out more. Over coffee and cake in Café Landtmann, we enter a world of shifting landscapes, complexity gaps, and random triggers. In EPISODE 1, he introduced us to the world of X-events, with its shifting landscapes, complexity gaps, and random triggers.
Will be held in Vienna Austria April 15 – 17, 2018
Details will be posted shortly
This paper serves as the final report of the Game Changers project lead by John Casti and coordinated by Leena Ilmola. The project was established towards the end of 2009 as a part of the Extreme Events in Human Society initiative at IIASA, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria).
Mathematical Model for the Dynamic Behavior of the Demographic Transition by Roger D. Jones
A mathematical model (Core Model) is presented that describes the gross dynamic behavior of the demographic transition—falling death rates lead to population increase, temporarily rising birth rates, temporarily increased population growth, decreased fertility, aging of the population, and finally a steady population size higher than the initial population. Core Model captures these features. The model is based on three fundamental observations 1) people are born, 2) people die, some at a young age, the rest at an old age, and 3) people give birth more often when conditions are favorable than not favorable. In addition to boundary conditions, Core Model has one free parameter, which is associated with the rate at which fertility adapts to changing conditions. Core Model predicts that aging populations are a natural consequence of the dynamics and the speed at which the population fertility adapts to changing death rates. Read full paper : 140705 demographic transition