John Casti, Roger Jones, and Michel Pennock, Confronting Complexity: X-Events, Resilience, and Human Progress, (TheX-Press, Vienna, 2016)
We imagine the reader to be a person who wants to intelligently manage his or her actions and behaviors in the midst of an X-event—in short, to manage an organization in chaos.
All it may take to send civilization crashing back to a preindustrial level is a nudge from what theorists like John L. Casti call an “X-Event” (short for “extreme event”), a rare and surprising event that yields extreme consequences. When the X-Event hits, finance, communication, and travel will halt. The flow of food, electricity, medicine, and clean water will cease. What will you do?
In X-EVENTS: The Collapse of Everything (William Morrow; June 12, 2012), renowned complexity scientist, John L. Casti, shows how our world has become impossibly intricate. Technology is advancing at an exponential rate and so too is our reliance on that technology in every aspect of our lives. Yet it is a rule of both mathematics and human nature that higher and higher levels of complexity make a system correspondingly more fragile and vulnerable to sudden, spectacular collapse.
Fascinating and chilling, X-EVENTS is a provocative tour of the catastrophic outlier scenarios that could send us back to the horse-and-buggy era in a flash: global financial “black swans”; the world-wide crash of the internet; the end of oil; nuclear winter; “nano-plagues”; robot uprisings; electromagnetic-pulse bombs; pandemic viruses; and many more.
“Mood Matters” makes the radical assertion that all social events ranging from fashions in music and art to the rise and fall of civilizations are biased by the attitudes a society holds toward the future. When the “social mood” is positive and people look forward to the future, events of an entirely different character tend to occur than when society is pessimistic. The book presents many examples from every walk of life in support of this argument. In addition, methods are given to actually measure the social mood and to project it into the future in order to forecast what’s likely or not over varying periods of time. Casti’s writing is a pleasure to read and its contents an eye-opener.
This paper examines a complex system of systems in the biological context of a glucose detector in plants.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311102739_A_Shadow_Detector_for_Photosynthesis_Efficiency Mathematical Model for the Dynamic Behavior of the Demographic Transition – by Roger D. Jones
Read the paper This paper serves as the final report of the Game Changers project lead by John Casti and coordinated by Leena Ilmola. The project was established towards the end of 2009 as a part of the Extreme Events in Human Society initiative at IIASA, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria).
Read the paper The Collapse of the European Union -Overview- by John Casti
Read the paper The X-Events Index – by John Casti
Read the paper The Way the World Works – white paper by John Casti